Will The Oscars Be Cancelled Just Like The Golden Globes? What's An Advertiser (and the Networks) To Do?

And the winner is...not the advertisers or media companies--that's for sure.

The writers strike has claimed another casualty, with the cancelation of the broadcast of the Golden Globes ceremony. And now, media buyers are scrambling to come up with contingency plans in case the Oscars are canceled or scaled back.

Event advertising has become one of the more-sure-things in this ad-ignoring, program-shifting, TiVo-lovin' world of ours. The Oscars and Super Bowl are two events where commercials are as celebrated as the winners and losers--where buzz moves from the living room to the watercooler, and where partygoers still get "shooshed" when attempting to talk during the commercial breaks.

So, ya, canceling the Oscars is a big deal.

As was the decision to cancel the Golden Globes.

According to the fine folks at the Wall Street Journal, media buyers say NBC is offering advertisers cash back for their unfulfilled commitment to advertise on the Golden Globes, and some buyers suggest the amount being returned could top $10 million. "We're working with each client on a case-by-case basis to come up with the best possible solution for everyone involved," an NBC spokeswoman says.

And the Oscars are an $80 million advertising proposition for ABC.

"You just can't shift the Oscar ads to any Thursday night show because some ads are created especially for that event," according to Paul Tilley, managing director of creative at Omnicom Group Inc.'s DDB Chicago (from the WSJ). "Oscar ads are often more expensive and elaborate."

The Academy is proceeding "on the assumption that the strike will get settled or we can work out a deal" with the Writers Guild, says executive director Bruce Davis.

So, cross your fingers, and make sure you have a returnable deposit from the caterer for your Oscar party bash.